System Dynamics

Simulation tools based on Systems Thinking and System Dynamics

We apply these approaches in real world analysis situations. Please contact us for further information and demos.

Systems thinking, scenario analysis

Modelling and Simulation Tools are nowadays still restricted to the expert audience.The Learn-Act-Lead LoopThe Learn-Act-Lead Loop

This project provides access to a powerful, yet easy to use tool for a much broader public. It is intended as a means to learn dinamic aspects of complex systems, develop models, analyze and act according to the knowledge gained.

As a user, the tool enables you to model an aspect of the world and study its evolution through time. This is achieved by identifying the participants in the system that is modelled and determining the relations between them.

We assume that complex systems are expressed in even more complex terms. Simarios provides a means of expressing even complex systems in simple terms:

Models have no need for complex mathematical formulae that describe the evolution over time, the system's evolution is a result of the relations between objects in the model.

At any given time, the participants and relations in the Model can be modified to create alternate scenarios.

Why do we use this tool ?

* Learn the basics of systems thinking, scenario building and analysis
* Apply systems thinking to solve problems and improve systems and processes
* Implant systems thinking and scenario analyses in organizations
* Support leadership decision making by enabling long term analyses and scenario building at the top level

What do we achieve ?

* Learn, explore and teach basic concepts
* Model and analyze systems of concern
* Apply the knowledge gained by making decisions based on sustainable scenarios
* Interactive and intuitive visualization of scenarios enables to gain and transmit insights

The purpose of it all ... a short and curious exampleTrouble in the FischteichTrouble in the Fischteich

A typical introductory example is the behaviour of populations of species in a common environment. Such a system is easily modelled and observed by simulation. We have used our tool under development to model the relations between predator and prey fishes in a lake. Our simulated model is easily extended, taking also into account the influence of external impacts on the ecological systems such as fishermen, as well as more internal factors such as food supplies for prey fishes (plants and algae) or contaminating agents that deteriorate the quality of the lake's water.

Useful analyses of such models include the search for key factors determining stability and dynamic equilibrium of the system. Even though initial conditions make us believe that the system will evolve in a certain direction, after letting it evolve over time, we may find surprising results which, initially, were not expected at all.

In the aforementioned predator-prey system, we may indeed find curious scenarios. In one of those scenarios, predators start to grow in numbers, a healthy population of prey getting almost extinct. One should expect the total extinction of prey followed by the extinction of predators due to a lack of prey fish. Nevertheless, things turn out to evolve unexpectedly, predators die out due to a lack of prey fish before these succumb to the predator's hunger. Finally the population of prey fish somehow manages to survive the attacks of their enemies, while predators suffer complete extinction. This is just a nice example that contradicts the law of the strong, the importance of it lies in gaining knowledge of the possibility of one not at all expected scenario coming true.

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Systems Thinking

Scenario Analysis